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Selected Analysis and Commentary

Spear's ETF Analyst

Spear's ETF Analyst covers the whole universe of nearly 800 Exchange Traded Funds and tells you whether to buy, hold or sell. We cover the basics of ETF investing for beginners, and then provide professional-level analysis of each fund, using our own proven ability to identify international, sector and industry trends.

  • Hybrid – Government/Corporate ETFs
    Thursday, October 29, 2009    Full Article

    There are two hybrid government/corporate bond funds issued by iShares.  The first, iShares’ Barclays Intermediate Government/Credit Bond ETF (GVI), holds a total of 223 various bonds.  The fund is 62% invested in U.S.

  • Upticks and Downticks
    Thursday, October 8, 2009    Full Article

    On the regulatory front, support for bringing back the uptick rule for short selling is fading. Opponents of the uptick rule include Goldman Sachs and Vanguard. The comment from Goldman was expected, but Vanguard is a bit of a surprise. Apparently, even the larger mutual funds are realizing that the long-only game is over and they (and their clients) want to play the market from both sides.

    While financial institutions fight the uptick rule, the National Retail Federation is predicting a downtick in retail.  The NRF expects sales to decline 1% in November and December on a year over year basis. During the 2-month holiday season in 2008 the annual sales drop was 3.4%. A consecutive 2-year decline in retail sales is “unprecedented” according to the NRF, which has been tracking data since 1992. Sales figures don’t reflect the heavy discounting that most retailers are using to spur sales, and which undermines margins, so the picture is even more dire from an earnings perspective.

  • Top of the Mountain?
    Thursday, October 1, 2009    Full Article

    We don’t expect a final top to form while everyone is worried about a final top forming. Not only do we need to see some high volume selling in the leaders, but we also expect to see negative breadth divergence. That is just not happening yet.
     
    The market is climbing a Wall of Worry, but also a Wall of Money. With interest rates near zero, capital is flowing into assets that are moving, simply because they are moving. Momentum begets momentum; a self-fulfilling prophecy. It can’t go on forever, but it can last much longer than many expect.

  • Market Melt-Up
    Wednesday, September 16, 2009    Full Article

    The market melt-up continues. It reminds us of the pre-holiday rallies we used to have in November and December, when end-of-year buying quietly levitated the indices. Wednesday was the eighth upside close in nine sessions, but that figure could get as high as 13.

  • Credit Decline
    Wednesday, September 9, 2009    Full Article

    On Wednesday the Treasury Department said that more must be done to prevent millions of foreclosures. Of those eligible for loan modifications, which reduce monthly payment, only 12% have restructured their mortgages. Problems like these are why the World Economic Forum recently rated the U.S. 108th for financial trustworthiness, 106th for access to financing and 93rd for economic stability.

  • Shanghai Index
    Wednesday, September 2, 2009    Full Article

    In August, the Shanghai index posted its second worst monthly performance in 15 years, but when one considers what came before (the index more than doubled from its February low), the correction seems appropriate, even modest. Concerns about equity valuations and a contraction in bank lending were the catalysts for the selling.

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